During the month, the BTC/USD pair stayed in the range of 32,000-28,000. Today we can say that the pair finally broke out of this range, but not in the way many wanted. If last week there were still talks about the probability of a return of the BTC price above $30,000, today we can say that now this is an illusion. At the moment, the bears totally control the market. Record inflation figures in the US cast doubt on the recovery of the BTC price above $30,000. After their publication, the BTC/USD pair fell below 29,000. The next day, the reaction of Asian markets forced the BTC/USD pair to drop below 27,000. Yesterday, the BTC/USD pair continued to descend and fell below 23,000. And today BTC/USD pair reached a low of 20,816. Then it tried to bounce to the 23,000 area, but the bears quickly leveled this growth and returned the pair to the 22,000 area.
A rebound from the 20,000 mark gives a positive signal. Perhaps the 20,000 level is just the bottom which investors have been looking for several days. Technical indicators indicate that the asset is oversold and, as it were, hint that BTC/USD, if not at the bottom, is already close. Despite the oversold, the possibility of a lower decline remains. The bears’ activity causes a massive liquidation of long orders on the exchanges. And the necessary margin to maintain orders contributes to the downward pressure and may continue to reduce the price. The lower price levels brought the price of BTC closer to the realized price.
According to Glassnode, a cryptocurrency enters an accumulation zone when the price of Bitcoin interacts with the realized price. The BTC price has already touched the realized price, and additional downward pressure will cause the price of Bitcoin to be below the realized price. As practice shows, in such cases, the accumulation phase begins, followed by ascending of the asset price.
The market-value-to-realized-value ratio is 1.14. But every time this ratio falls below 1, growth begins.
It is worth noting that the fall in the price of Bitcoin did not cause panic among large wallets, the so-called whales. Wallets with balances between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC increased their balances by 0.25% between June 11 and 13. That is, they bought from 2,5 to 25 Bitcoins. But wallets with a balance of 10,000 to 100,000 lost 0.21%.
Let’s return to the accumulation phase and the expected bottom. If Bitcoin is not at the bottom yet, but near the bottom, then it may push off from this bottom. And most likely, this bottom will be in the area of 20,000-19,000. Some analysts expect a resumption of buying on the bottom by the end of the second quarter.