Tension between US and Iran

If it really happened the Iran war United States because tension between US and Iran how will the impact on global economic conditions?

Recently, the hot news was about the heating up of political conditions between the United States and Iran. In the US drone strike at Baghdad International Airport killed Iranian Revolutionary Guards Commander Qassim Sulaimani.

Sulaimani, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy commander of the Hashd al-Mashabi (PMF), Iraqi militia forces. With the death of Major General Qassim Sulaimani, therefore two countries have the potential to engage in war is close to big.

The death of the Iranian general increases tensions in the Middle East which is home to oil-producing countries. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani revealed in a statement that he would respond to this incident. This event might trigger a third world war, something that might happen or call an Armageddon war.

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Iran and US relations have not been good for a long time

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The tension between the US and Iran between the two countries has been going on for a long time.

It began in 2002 when President George W Bush accused three countries. North Korea, Iran, and Iraq, of being evil states that harbored, financed, and helped terrorists.

Bush considers that the three countries are very dangerous for world peace. And the US will cooperate with his coalition to ward off regimes that are considered to provide weapons to terrorists.

The US will ward off terrorists and their countries’ sponsor materials, technology, and expertise to make and deliver weapons of mass destruction.

The tension between the US and Iran grew heavier when opposition parties announced. That Iran was developing nuclear and uranium enrichment, triggering the US and Israel to become angry.

2015, after various diplomatic efforts, Iran approved a long-term agreement on its nuclear program with a group of world powers known as P5 +1 – the US, Britain, France, China, Russia, and Germany.

As a result in 2018, US President Donald Trump implemented a nuclear agreement with Iran. Since then, US and Iran relations have worsened.

Conflict military

Military conflicts between the two countries often occur. In May 2019, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said American B-52 Stratofortress bombers sent to the Middle East had arrived at the US base in Qatar.

The B-52 bomber will anticipate the Iranian threat at the US base in Qatar. Military conflict continues, on June 20, Iranian forces shot down a US military drone in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said the plane had violated Iranian airspace. But the US military denied that the drone was still on international waters.

Therefore, the US condemned the attack as an “unwarranted attack” by the IRGC. Trump’s tweets did not recede Iran’s military. Then the IRGC ship drove out the US Navy aircraft carrier.

This incident occurred because of increased tension in the waters of the Gulf. Iranian ships consisting of 20 small ships are reportedly surrounded and allegedly “harassing” USS Abraham Lincoln.

Impact of the war on Iranians

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Wherever the war will bring adverse impacts on its citizens, due to the war many buildings will be damaged by the bomb attack, fear, crying, pain, will make the citizens injured.

in addition, economic conditions will be chaotic. Prices of basic necessities have also skyrocketed in Iran. Many young people lose their jobs.

Even in April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Iran’s economy was expected to decline and inflation reached 40%. The price of bread, cooking oil, and other necessities jumped sharply.

The Iranian currency devalued up to 60% compared to riyals and forced many small factories to close because of scarce raw materials. The Iranian government says 15% of the workforce is unemployed. Many companies lay off their employees because of financial problems.

Effect of war on oil prices

Iran is one of the world’s oil-producing countries, they rely on the economy from oil exports. If this war really happens, the impact is likely to be very high on oil prices.

Because Iran is one of the world’s oil suppliers, if this war happens it will stop the supply of oil so that oil prices are likely to rise even higher. Even after the death of Major General Qasem Soleimani world oil prices have also risen.

Brent oil prices jumped 3.6% to as low as the US $ 68.60 per barrel on 3 January. US oil futures also rise 3.1% to the US $ 63.05 per barrel. This is the biggest increase in the past month and the highest price since September 2019.

Some analysts even expressed their concern that if the role of Iran United States would become a major war  Armageddon, the possibility of oil prices could reach $ 100 per barrel.

If this possibility becomes true, then the condition of the world economy will also be threatened, not only in the Middle East but also in other continents.

Everyone knows that if the oil is needed in almost all countries, this means that if oil prices soar, production costs will increase, and this will affect all sectors.

Impact of the war Iran United States on the forex market

An analyst from CNBC state the temporary impact of the situation in the Middle East heats up shortly after Qassim Sulaimani was killed. Several European currencies weakened in trading due to the heating up situation in the Middle East.

The pound sterling and the currencies of 19 European countries have both weakened since the beginning of the trade. The pound was at US $ 1.3090, down 0.41%, while the euro was down 0.22% at the US $ 1.1146.

But not all analysts give the same statements of the effects of the Iran and United States war. Some analysts say that if this war will become a major war of Armageddon, investors will look for safe assets, one of which is the USD.

But other analysts stated that a safe asset is not the USD. Because after all this currency is from the United States which of course in the war will spend a lot of USD for the war, and this will make this currency weaken.

While other assets that are considered safe are gold and the Japanese yen, it seems that at the beginning of the week there was a very high gap in the price of gold.

Whatever happens, later investors will be careful in determining assets that are safe from risk, but hopefully, the war will not happen because it will only make this world not peaceful.

Is it possible that the United States war in Iran triggered World War III?

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Hashtag world war III had become a trending topic in tweeters after the death of Qassim Sulaimani. Many netizens are worried about World War III following tensions in the Middle East.

This is because maybe this war will drag countries close to Iran to take part in this war. For example, Israel, which is an American ally, might not be silent if Iranian missiles pass through their country.

And other Islamic countries might also be involved in this war. Because of the hatred of Trump’s policies that discriminate against Islam as a terrorist.

But there are some observers who provide answers that the possibility of conflict between Iran and the United States will not trigger World War III.

The reason is that Russia and China are not included in this drama. But this conflict can lead to a major war between Iran and the United States.

A counterattack from Iran could occur, and this could result in a cycle of action and reaction that brought the two countries near an all-out conflict.

Iran’s response could lead to US military interests in the region. But it could also target other US-related Iran which according to Iran is vulnerable.

What is the attitude of the United Nations, towards the killing of Qasim Sulaimani?

Aside from the views expressed by individual representatives. It is difficult to say what the UN views on this case because actually there is nothing like that. They are likely to be divided and unable to reach consensus. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was very worried about rising tensions in the Middle East.

Is the legal killing of Qasem Sulaimani based on international law?

Trump has an argument that Soleimani is responsible for the unreasonable attack on the American military forces in Iraq. Military forces are stationed there at the request of the Iraqi government.

Soleimani is a man that Washington believes has killed many US military personnel. While the Quds organization he leads is seen by the US as a terrorist organization. According to this trump is legal based on the narrative of his argument.

But the renowned international law expert, Professor Mary Ellen O’Connell of Notre Dame Law School, has this view of the legal implications:

  • A preemptive strike in the name of self-defense cannot be a legal justification for murder. Nothing can. The relevant law is the UN Charter, which defines self-defense as the right to respond to actual and significant armed attacks.
  • Using the drone to kill Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad is not a response to an armed attack on the United States. Iran is not attacking US sovereignty.
  • In this case, the US has not only carried out extrajudicial killings, but they have also launched unlawful attacks inside Iraq.

Final Thought

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Armageddon is a big war that has existed in the predictions of some of the world’s leading religions. However, not everyone will like this condition because the effects of war will only cause damage on earth.

Although the current Middle East conditions may be increasingly tense. Hopefully, it does not cause World War III, and hopefully, all parties can restrain both those who are pro with Iran or those who are against Iran and vice versa with the US.

Maybe for martyrs, death in war is something sweet because for those who believe in heaven, and true Muslims will never fear death in war. But what about civilians, of course, war will cause fear and also difficulties in life and far from normal conditions.

We who love peace, just pray that the great war of Iran and the United States does not happen.

Summarized from several sources

BBC

CNBC

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