It seems that over the past three days, Bitcoin has lost hope of once again testing the level of 45000. After reaching a high of $45850 on February 10, the BTC/USD pair shows a steady decline. First, BTC/USD fell below the support of 44000, then it broke below the support of 43000. Now the BTC/USD pair is struggling to stay above 42000.
However, Bitcoin received another pressure factor – a geopolitical crisis. Against the backdrop of the geopolitical crisis, the US dollar is strengthening. Today, the Dollar Index rose to $96,123 points (+0,09%) Bitcoin (BTC), on the contrary, is retreating. The tense situation between Ukraine and Russia is forcing investors to withdraw from risky assets. In addition, JPMorgan analysts have suggested that the fair value of Bitcoin is $38000 in the current cycle.
On the chart, we see a decline. The BTC/USD pair is below the 100-hour moving average. In the Asian session, the BTC/USD pair fell below 42000 but managed to return to the beginning of the European one. Thus, the level of 42000 provides immediate support for the BTC/USD pair. A downward breakdown of this level will allow the pair to drop to the area of 41600. Further, the area of 41200-41000 should stop the decline of the BTC/USD pair. If the bulls fail to stop the bears, we will see the BTC/USD pair declined towards the support level of 40000.
If the bulls can defend the level of 42000, they will try to bring the price of Bitcoin closer to 42850. A break above this level will allow the BTC/USD pair to return above $43500.